EU economy possible welcome powerful rebound

COVID-19 epidemic give Europe economy and society leave scar。 EU majority country also at withstand epidemic spread、 city blockade suffering, economy recovery also need wait。 people hope pass broad vaccinate novel coronavirus vaccines control virus spread, only thus economy society possible indeed heavy new open get recovery。

2020 year EU economy performance let people worry, eurozone country widespread encounter unprecedented difficult challenge。 but, severe winter past, EU economic spring probably will to come。

IMF statistic discover, eurozone economy at2020 year recession 6.8%。 last year first quarter economy increase begin become slow, COVID-19 epidemic at second quarter overall assault Europe, eurozoneGDP drop about 12%, third quarter appear 12.4% enormously rebound, however fourth quarter and because epidemic again spread while retrogression。

EU committee recently release 2021 year winter economy forecast discover, EU economy 2021 year will increase 3.7%,2022 year will increase 3.9%; this year and next year eurozone economy will average increase 3.8%。 report think, this year first quarter EU economy still continue weak, but along with novel coronavirus vaccines vaccinate plan advance and prevention and control measure gradually relax, economy increase hopeful at two quarter recover, second half begin overall recovery。

according toOECD data analysis, eurozone each economy performance difference tremendous。 Spain economy at 2020 year suffer strike maximum,GDP decline about 12%, France and Italy decline 9.1%, while Germany decline 5.5%。 Denmark、 Finland、 Sweden、 Poland and IrelandGDP decline range compare small, about 3%-4% 。

this group data actually also reflect all countries suffer epidemic strike bad degree。 Italy and Spain first suffer epidemic impact, execute more long、 more strict blockade, therefore economy by strike compare bad。 besides, tourism dominant country suffer loss more than other country, while more depend manufacturing industry and exportable Germany, benefit world trade quick recovery。 from last year third quarter begin, Europe economy along with global trade quick recovery while rapid rebound, export-oriented eurozone economy present powerfulV shape rebound, especially is manufacturing industry first benefit, prevent overall collapse。 but, service craft whereas still by blockade worry, catering、 aviation、 hotel craft loss bad。 this cause Europe economy appear differentiation, purchase manager people indexPMI at last year12 month achieve18 month supreme, this year1 month still maintain at high position , while service industryPMI still at last decline。

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